Richard Gwyn gets it wrong

Where else is renewal going to come from in the party? Why discount one of the best cabinet ministers in recent memory, and a great Canadian patriot. It is time for the punditocracy to actually understand how the political parties in this country work. Strong organization matter most.

Here is Richard's Article from the TorStar

Winter vote risky venture for all parties

Both Martin and Harper face the prospect of being tossed out as party leaders not too long after election

Nov. 11, 2005. 01:00 AM

RICHARD GWYN

Among pundits, the prevailing opinion about the now all but certain winter election is that it will be almost entirely pointless because its outcome will be virtually the same as what we now have.

This is quite true. And, potentially, quite untrue.

It is wholly true that we're highly likely to end up exactly where we now are, with a minority Liberal government, barring some convulsive event during the campaign itself, an event that would have to involve some party leader committing some truly spectacular goof.

A Liberal majority simply isn't in prospect.

The sponsorship scandal is already yesterday's news.

Its continuing relevance has been undermined considerably by Justice John Gomery's rather uninspired first report.

Thus, Gomery went out of his way to exonerate Prime Minister Paul Martin as if it were normal for a finance minister, and a senior Quebec minister, and the vice-president of Treasury Board (which approves all spending programs) to have had not a clue — supposedly — about a major spending program in Quebec.

Yet, while the scandal now provokes little more than a resigned shrug, there's still an edge of anger in the public's reaction.

There appears to be an underlying feeling that the Liberals simply do not deserve to be handed back their majority.

The principle beneficiaries of this distemper may be the New Democrats and the Greens.

The alternative of a Conservative victory, by even the narrowest of minorities, is an even more distant prospect.

Here, one of the paradoxes of Canadian politics comes into play.

The principal loser of this apparent Conservative weakness will be the Liberals.

This is because the Liberals always do best when they can stampede NDP and independent voters into their arms by pointing in horror to an advancing horde of Conservative "barbarians."

Even the standings of each of the parties aren't likely to change much.

The Bloc Québécois will probably pick up a few seats in Quebec, but it has to be already pretty close to its maximum.

The Liberals keep claiming they are going to make a major breakthrough in British Columbia, but it never happens. So, ho-hum. We'd all do much better to save our breath for the incessant Ho, Ho, Hos of the coming holiday season.

Not entirely. Not by quite a margin.

Our politics staying the same could mean a great deal changing in our politics.

Martin will then have twice failed to win the majority that ought to have been his, because of the weakness of the opposition and because re-election ought to be a snap for almost any government these days, given our booming economy and all the spare cash that's now available to be spent — and is most certainly going to be spent — making voters feel grateful for being handed back their own money.

Conservative leader Stephen Harper will be looking post-election at the same mirror image, but with a few more cracks in it.

He'll have twice failed to defeat a government that's been weakened severely by the sponsorship scandal.

Expect, therefore, Martin and Harper to move on within two years and for the two leadership contests to start within hours of the election results being announced.

Expect, moreover, both governing parties to search for new leaders who really are new — for some new face and voice and ideas, rather than a former Liberal cabinet minister such as John Manley or an incumbent Conservative front-bencher like Peter MacKay.

There'll be an opportunity and a felt need, in other words, to detach our politics from those of the 20th century and to bring it fully into the 21st century.

And since that's the century we're now in, that's where our politics should be.

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Richard Gwyn's column appears Tuesdays and Fridays. gwynR@sympatico.ca.