Leadership Race Already Underway (just below the surface)

Liberals getting set for run to replace Martin

Dec. 21, 2005. 01:00 AM

JAMES TRAVERS

Ottawa—Forget waiting for the people to decide. Ambitious Liberals are readying for a fast run at the leadership if Paul Martin fails to win a majority that looks out of reach.

With this campaign still in doubt, no one wants to embarrass the Prime Minister or, worse still, enrage advisers who firmly control the party and may ultimately determine Martin's successor. But many Liberals are certain the party is heading for another minority and say new leadership must be found before the next election.

Topping everyone's list of heirs-apparent is Canada's ambassador to the U.S., Frank McKenna. As a civil servant and Martin appointment, McKenna is being properly careful. Even so, the former New Brunswick premier is working his Rolodex, making frequent Canadian speeches and is widely expected to get Martin's blessing should the Prime Minister step down.

Others either organizing or keeping options open include immigration and Ontario political minister Joe Volpe, former deputy prime minister John Manley and Michael Ignatieff, the Harvard professor whose transparent leadership plans riled Martin loyalists enough to turn the fight for the Etobicoke-Lakeshore nomination into an ugly brawl. Hovering in the wings are also former Jean Chrétien ministers Martin Cauchon and Brian Tobin, as well as Maurizio Bevilacqua, one of the brightest of next-generation Liberals left out of a weak Martin cabinet.

Breaking ranks now would be suicidal for any wannabe. But in background interviews, Liberals on both sides of the divide between Martin and Chrétien said the first post-election priority must be renewal. Without that, they predict a repeat of the 1984 election when Brian Mulroney swept away tired Liberals to hold power for nine years.

"If Martin leads this party into the next election you will have a Conservative majority," says a lifetime Liberal at the centre of one of the fledgling leadership efforts. "Anyone who thinks otherwise is crazy."

Those supporting new leadership worry that the powerful clique around Martin will interpret a second minority as a victory, mistaking holding 24 Sussex Dr., the Prime Minister's official residence, as the prize.

"Martin's people decided they won the last election," says a well-connected Liberal not involved in any leadership campaign. "For Liberals, winning is not a minority."

Yet that's the most likely scenario as this campaign heads into the Christmas recess, and it makes Liberals nervous. If Martin narrowly hangs on to power, the Conservatives will be looking for a fresh challenger that an aging Prime Minister leading a party in power too long won't be able to match.

There's hope in leadership camps that Martin will reach the same conclusion. But there's an even stronger sense that those around the Prime Minister will press him to stay.

"If he goes, they go," says one Liberal now readying a leadership campaign. "You won't be able to move them out with a crowbar."

Ousting an unwilling Martin would be remarkably difficult. No faction is remotely strong enough to match the Martin forces that rebuilt the party while toppling Chrétien. Unless Liberals are defeated, or Martin accepts that his objectives of 10 years of power and sweeping change are now impossible, Liberals will plunge into a leadership fight.

According to some, the first shots have already been fired. They say what seemed like a local overreaction to the rush to find Ignatieff a safe Liberal seat was in fact an early test of leadership wills.

Instead of embracing a candidate of Ignatieff's unusual calibre, Liberals close to Martin reacted fiercely to a foolishly premature attempt by his supporters to push someone with no political experience to the front of the leadership queue. Ignatieff is expected to survive and win the riding, but with his leadership prospects and human rights reputation bruised.

Less mysterious and more upfront is the new reality facing the party that dominated federal politics for a century. Scandal and Martin's decision to run against Chrétien's record have badly damaged a Liberal brand now urgently requiring repair.

Barring a campaign upswing, Martin's attempt to rebuild the party without losing its stranglehold on power will fail in January when Liberals again fall short of a majority. The party will then have to move forward by leaving behind both the Chrétien years and Martin's 17-month minority.

That means Chrétien's former ministers and those closely associated with Martin's disappointing administration have little chance of becoming leader. That isn't lost on Manley, who's listening to supporters but not committing to another bid, and it should be obvious to Volpe, Cauchon and Tobin.

What's even more apparent is that a leadership campaign is now roiling just below this election's surface. It won't stay there much longer.

Additional articles by James Travers