Liberal leadership could lose its allure

I think Jim Travers greatly underestimates John Manley... Just as any former Martin sycophant would...

Jan. 19, 2006. 01:00 AM
JAMES TRAVERS

It's hard to argue that Liberals don't deserve the rough justice heading their way. Too long in power, too often caught putting friends first and too willing to let political expediency torque public policy, a party that ruled mostly unchallenged since 1993 now finds the cause of its current misery in the mirror.

Tilting to optimism over experience, voters in 2004 gave Paul Martin a rare second chance. It was squandered and a prime minister who measured every inch of the distance between expectations and delivery now faces a soul-searing examination of what went wrong.

There's residual unfairness in that judgment and in what waits for Martin. Four consecutive Liberal mandates made Canada economically stronger as well as arguably better and there are bright moments in a prime ministerial performance now booked for a brief run.

Still, the consensus sweeping the country is sound. Between the 2003 Liberal leadership race and this election, the ruling party gutted its brand while Martin wandered in a labyrinth of indecision.

So Liberals are about to experience what happens when fear no longer trumps hope and putting a crowbar to the status quo suddenly isn't scary. Barring recoil from the prospect of a Stephen Harper majority, a party defined by power is just days away from being rooted from it.

Fair enough. But how much punishment is in the national interest?

A vibrant democracy demands a viable alternative. The next Parliament will need a robust opposition as much as the last four suffered in its absence.

Voters will make that happen Monday. Or they could reduce Liberals to a rump.

In either case, the anticipated Conservative victory will see the ever-pleasant, long-suffering Sheila Martin abruptly drag her husband back to their sheep farm in Quebec's bucolic Eastern Townships. But the severity of the punishment is much more significant to a party shuffling towards the renewal phase of the political lifecycle.

What Liberals know is this: Chances of attracting top-tier leadership contenders fall with the rise in seats lost. "We need to rebuild quickly from a position of strength," says a lifetime Liberal and senior Martin cabinet minister. "We can't do that if we are wiped out."

That's important, and not just for the party. Liberals exaggerate wildly when they equate themselves with Canadian values and unity, but they do represent a specific set of priorities that are germane to the current, and coming, national debate. But Liberals who last took an introspective look 13 years ago are now as confused about the party's mission and vision as they are divided by bitter jealousies. The coherence and discipline that come with strong leadership are urgently required.

In the past, capable and occasionally extraordinary champions were drawn to the party by the magnet force of power. Liberal leaders, unlike those of other parties, are all but guaranteed to be prime ministers.

On Monday, that guarantee could be null and void. If Liberals tumble to, say, 85 seats from the 133 they held or, worse still, win less nationally than the Bloc in Quebec, those big names touted as the next saviours will be busy elsewhere when Liberals come knocking.

Age, better prospects and the bleakness of four or eight years dragging the party back to competitiveness won't appeal to Frank McKenna, Michael Ignatieff or even John Manley. Stripped to base metal, the once-gilded trophy of federal politics will be most attractive to an unknown new generation and election survivors who would be also-rans in more illustrious races.

Ontario's Joe Volpe and Quebec's Martin Cauchon top a list that also includes an exception. If the young are found wanting and the more experienced step aside, the great goalie and now Martin minister Ken Dryden could step up. Revered in Quebec, admired everywhere, his resumé includes business as well as hockey and politics.

It's possible Dryden could win any leadership contest. But what's far more certain is the line forming for the Liberal leadership will grow or shrink in direct proportion to Monday's results.

That's not a sound reason for Canadians to reconsider their first choice — strategic voting leads to unpleasant surprises. But it's the collateral damage waiting for Liberals at the end of this train-wreck campaign.