Some Liberals brace for the worst

The worst would be Paulie holding on his his cold dead hands!
By MICHAEL DEN TANDT AND CAMPBELL CLARK

Friday, January 13, 2006 Page A1

With a report from Jane Taber




With 10 days to go in the federal election campaign, some veteran Liberals are openly conceding defeat, while others have begun quietly laying the groundwork for a leadership contest they believe will "renew" the party.

At the same time, senior Liberals are undertaking what amounts to a pre-election postmortem on Paul Martin's two-year tenure as Prime Minister and the current campaign.

"People are talking to me and saying, 'Well, who do you think can do well,' " former Liberal cabinet minister Herb Dhaliwal said. "I think if Paul Martin is defeated, he'll have no choice but to leave, particularly if there's a strong minority for the Conservatives."

Canada's ambassador to Washington, Frank McKenna, former finance minister John Manley, former fisheries minister Brian Tobin, Ontario cabinet minister Joe Volpe, Toronto-area MP Maurizio Bevilacqua and author Michael Ignatieff were quietly testing the leadership waters before the campaign began, and several have become more active since, insiders say.

"There's no question it's happening," said former Liberal MP John Nunziata, who held a Commons seat for 16 years, eventually sitting as an Independent, before losing in 2000. "There are people meeting surreptitiously -- certainly nothing very public. But each of the candidates, potential candidates, are working the lines. People are putting organizations together."

Mr. McKenna, in particular, appears to be gathering support. While he has been careful not to say that he's running for the leadership, he has been keeping in touch with key Liberals, insiders say.

"For a guy like McKenna, if he's calling people, it sends a message," one Liberal operative said. "I hear people are pushing him, promoting him and willing to work for him."

Recent polls have shown surging support for Stephen Harper's Conservatives, particularly in Quebec -- fuelling talk of a Tory majority.

Not surprisingly, much of the internal criticism of the Martin team comes from loyalists of former prime minister Jean Chrétien, from whom Mr. Martin wrested control of the party in 2003. Said one former Chrétien cabinet minister: "Harper's been able to bring people together. Martin hasn't."

The latest Strategic Counsel poll suggests increasing pessimism among professed Liberal supporters: 40 per cent of Liberals say they think the Conservatives will win on Jan. 23. That number has nearly doubled, from 23 per cent, in less than a week.

Mr. Martin, however, refused to concede defeat. "We were in the same position in the last election," he said in interviews yesterday. "And there was about the same time to go."

Liberal insiders say the decade-long war between Mr. Martin and Mr. Chrétien -- and Mr. Martin's failure to heal the wounds after his accession -- has hobbled the Liberal campaign. Many party organizers are sitting on the sidelines. Others were not asked to help.

One of these is Senator Jim Munsen, Mr. Chrétien's former communications director.

"Last time, I was asked, [strategist] Peter Donolo and myself, to participate in strategic conference calls, and this time I'm not," Mr. Munsen said. "But I wasn't surprised, because they have their own team, and that's the way it is."

Said Mr. Dhaliwal: "They decided, for whatever reason, that they needed to look like a whole new government and distance themselves from the Chrétien years, and get rid of all the people who have a national profile and could be helpful in the campaign. And they have not united the party."

Andrew Kania, Ontario organizer for Mr. Manley's failed 2003 leadership bid, said that if the Conservatives win, Liberals expect Mr. Martin to resign.

"At the end of the day, formally, I don't think there's going to be any campaign to remove Martin. But if there's a Conservative minority, how does he stay?" Mr. Kania said. "Everybody's quietly saying that if there's a Conservative minority or worse, he has to go."

Mr. Kania said that he has spoken to ethnic communities in Ottawa in the past two weeks, but said he networks "regardless of whether Mr. Manley is running."

"But it is obviously my hope and my expectation that he runs when it becomes appropriate, and I expect him to win."

A Conservative victory would force his party to rebuild, Mr. Kania said.

"It means it's going to be time to revitalize the Liberal Party. We're going to need to focus on the structure of the party. We're going to need to focus upon new policy and we're going to need to self-examine as to why this [loss] just took place."

Mr. Kania said he still believes the Liberals could win a minority.

"A lot of people want the Liberals to have a time-out this time, and they're not impressed with Martin personally. And I think that's a different conclusion than you actually want Harper to get a majority."

Some Liberals say the race is over, and argue a loss on Jan. 23 would benefit the party in the longer term. Some key thinkers, one Liberal senator said, "have been talking about the idea that maybe now is a perfect opportunity for renewal."

Others are less sanguine. Many Liberal MPs in Ontario are worried about their chances of winning. And the fingers are pointing at the national campaign.

One Liberal MP said he's pretty sure that Martin strategists are wearing "protective vests." And he said he feels no sympathy for Mr. Martin.