The party that lost its way by Andrew Coyne, National Post

There is a Liberal party, and a Liberal leader, that could win this election. But today's Liberal party is not that party, and Paul Martin is not that leader.

Or rather, this Paul Martin is not. There is another Paul Martin who could win: the Paul Martin who slew the deficit, the Paul Martin who came to office vowing to slay the democratic deficit as well. But this is not that Paul Martin.

There is a Liberal party that could play to traditional Liberal strengths. It could attack the separatists for the destructive force that they are. It could defend the federal prerogative against the parochial demands of the provinces, and denounce the Tories for their readiness to take in the premiers' washing. It could insist on the primacy of the Charter, and the vital necessity of preserving a single-payer health care system.

There is an "ideal form" of Liberal party that could do this: the Liberal party that once was, the Liberal party that might be. But the Liberal party that is cannot, nor certainly can its present leader. Mr. Martin cannot attack separatism as illegitimate -- not after appointing one of the founders of the Bloc Quebecois, Jean Lapierre, as his lieutenant. Nor can he present himself as the man to stare down an attempted separatist coup, having done so much to undermine the Clarity Act -- from his initial refusal to endorse it, to bumping Stephane Dion from Cabinet, to Mr. Lapierre's comments, never repudiated, that the Act was "useless."

Mr. Martin cannot denounce the Conservatives for making parley with the Bloc, having done so himself whenever it suited him. Nor can he paint the Tories as the party that would give away the store to the provinces in general, or Quebec in particular, when his whole record is the same: from the debacle of the health care deal -- $41-billion in exchange for six magic beans -- to the "asymmetric federalism" fiasco to the McGuinty cave-in to the incoherent mess that was once the equalization program.

Mr. Martin might have some room to attack the Conservative leader, Stephen Harper, for his readiness to override the Charter -- were it not Mr. Harper who has in fact vowed "never" to invoke the notwithstanding clause, and Mr. Martin who once mused that he might. And Mr. Martin can say nothing about any alleged Tory threat to medicare, when it is on his watch that private medical clinics charging fat fees for access -- not just private provision, but private finance -- have proliferated across the country. He cannot so much as mention the Canada Health Act, the second Charter of Rights, when it is he who made it a dead letter.

It is the same for those more recent additions to the Liberal creed. Mr. Martin can hardly pose as the champion of Kyoto, when his own misgivings about the accord -- the usual unnamed Martin aide even mused about reneging at one point -- are well-known. Not to say the rank hypocrisy of upbraiding the Americans for their failure to ratify, when we lag behind not only them but virtually every other signatory nation with respect to our own commitments.

Mr. Martin likes to remind people of Mr. Harper's earlier readiness to support the American-led invasion of Iraq (not that this should be counted as a fault, but never mind). But Mr. Martin was no less gung-ho at one time, in principle if not in explicit commitments. He paints Mr. Harper as too pro-American, but it was his own declared mission as a candidate for leader of his party to forge a more "mature" relationship with the Yanks, after the infantile taunts of the Chretien era. He might make hay of the Conservative leader's opposition to gay marriage, had he ever once expressed support for the idea himself -- not as something imposed upon us by the Charter, but as a positive good.

On all these issues, the Paul Martin who would be Prime Minister distanced himself from the government of which he was once a part, portraying himself as a centrist alternative to his left-leaning predecessor. That's his right -- but having jumped off that train, he cannot ride it now. Or if he wishes to credit himself with that government's achievements, he cannot avoid association with its misdeeds.

Indeed, so completely has Mr. Martin turned himself inside out that he cannot even campaign on his own record. The Paul Martin of 1997 or even 2000 might legitimately boast of his success in curbing spending. The Paul Martin of 2005, after the runaway growth in spending since then -- nearly 50% over five years, much of it unbudgeted -- cannot. As for the "democratic deficit," supposedly the raison d'etre of his premiership, the less said about that the better.

It's sad. After all his tacking about, his endless opportunism, his shameless hypocrisy, Mr. Martin cannot credibly campaign as either an old Liberal or a new one. The traditional Liberal coalition has been abandoned, without another having been assembled in its place. The party is now as hollow as the man.

National Post

(It has been proven that non subcription based news sources online are far more profitable than subscription based ones. Hopefully the National Post and the Globe will come to the same conclusion the Toronto star did.

Leadership Race Already Underway (just below the surface)

Liberals getting set for run to replace Martin

Dec. 21, 2005. 01:00 AM

JAMES TRAVERS

Ottawa—Forget waiting for the people to decide. Ambitious Liberals are readying for a fast run at the leadership if Paul Martin fails to win a majority that looks out of reach.

With this campaign still in doubt, no one wants to embarrass the Prime Minister or, worse still, enrage advisers who firmly control the party and may ultimately determine Martin's successor. But many Liberals are certain the party is heading for another minority and say new leadership must be found before the next election.

Topping everyone's list of heirs-apparent is Canada's ambassador to the U.S., Frank McKenna. As a civil servant and Martin appointment, McKenna is being properly careful. Even so, the former New Brunswick premier is working his Rolodex, making frequent Canadian speeches and is widely expected to get Martin's blessing should the Prime Minister step down.

Others either organizing or keeping options open include immigration and Ontario political minister Joe Volpe, former deputy prime minister John Manley and Michael Ignatieff, the Harvard professor whose transparent leadership plans riled Martin loyalists enough to turn the fight for the Etobicoke-Lakeshore nomination into an ugly brawl. Hovering in the wings are also former Jean Chrétien ministers Martin Cauchon and Brian Tobin, as well as Maurizio Bevilacqua, one of the brightest of next-generation Liberals left out of a weak Martin cabinet.

Breaking ranks now would be suicidal for any wannabe. But in background interviews, Liberals on both sides of the divide between Martin and Chrétien said the first post-election priority must be renewal. Without that, they predict a repeat of the 1984 election when Brian Mulroney swept away tired Liberals to hold power for nine years.

"If Martin leads this party into the next election you will have a Conservative majority," says a lifetime Liberal at the centre of one of the fledgling leadership efforts. "Anyone who thinks otherwise is crazy."

Those supporting new leadership worry that the powerful clique around Martin will interpret a second minority as a victory, mistaking holding 24 Sussex Dr., the Prime Minister's official residence, as the prize.

"Martin's people decided they won the last election," says a well-connected Liberal not involved in any leadership campaign. "For Liberals, winning is not a minority."

Yet that's the most likely scenario as this campaign heads into the Christmas recess, and it makes Liberals nervous. If Martin narrowly hangs on to power, the Conservatives will be looking for a fresh challenger that an aging Prime Minister leading a party in power too long won't be able to match.

There's hope in leadership camps that Martin will reach the same conclusion. But there's an even stronger sense that those around the Prime Minister will press him to stay.

"If he goes, they go," says one Liberal now readying a leadership campaign. "You won't be able to move them out with a crowbar."

Ousting an unwilling Martin would be remarkably difficult. No faction is remotely strong enough to match the Martin forces that rebuilt the party while toppling Chrétien. Unless Liberals are defeated, or Martin accepts that his objectives of 10 years of power and sweeping change are now impossible, Liberals will plunge into a leadership fight.

According to some, the first shots have already been fired. They say what seemed like a local overreaction to the rush to find Ignatieff a safe Liberal seat was in fact an early test of leadership wills.

Instead of embracing a candidate of Ignatieff's unusual calibre, Liberals close to Martin reacted fiercely to a foolishly premature attempt by his supporters to push someone with no political experience to the front of the leadership queue. Ignatieff is expected to survive and win the riding, but with his leadership prospects and human rights reputation bruised.

Less mysterious and more upfront is the new reality facing the party that dominated federal politics for a century. Scandal and Martin's decision to run against Chrétien's record have badly damaged a Liberal brand now urgently requiring repair.

Barring a campaign upswing, Martin's attempt to rebuild the party without losing its stranglehold on power will fail in January when Liberals again fall short of a majority. The party will then have to move forward by leaving behind both the Chrétien years and Martin's 17-month minority.

That means Chrétien's former ministers and those closely associated with Martin's disappointing administration have little chance of becoming leader. That isn't lost on Manley, who's listening to supporters but not committing to another bid, and it should be obvious to Volpe, Cauchon and Tobin.

What's even more apparent is that a leadership campaign is now roiling just below this election's surface. It won't stay there much longer.

Additional articles by James Travers