Manley Organization Prepared to be Kingmakers?

Manley won't enter Grit leadership race

Juliet O'Neill
CanWest News Service

Friday, January 27, 2006

OTTAWA -- John Manley won't enter the Liberal leadership race, but some of his core supporters are vowing to stick together and move as a block, hoping to serve as potential kingmakers for another candidate to replace Paul Martin.

"We would have a significant impact," Brampton, Ont., lawyer Andrew Kania said Thursday, noting that the Manley campaign attracted 50,000 new Liberals in three months during the 2003 leadership race and the core group has stayed in touch for three years since then. "We could tip the balance for somebody."

It's too soon to say who that somebody might be, he said, since none of the many potential candidates, from Ambassador Frank McKenna to celebrity MP Belinda Stronach, has declared.

"But one thing we've agreed on is we're moving as a block and we're staying together and we're going to somebody in due course."

Kania's comments came amid calls from some Liberals against a coronation for McKenna or any other candidate.

"Those of us who remain must not repeat past errors of believing that we can effect change merely by exchanging party leaders," said a letter to party members from former policy chair Akah Maharaj. He called for internal reform and grassroots rejuvenation.

Bill Milliken, an Ottawa consultant and longtime friend of Manley's, said it is unlikely all of Manley's supporters will swing behind one candidate. "That may well occur, but I'm sure there are going to be differences of opinion among us, and that's healthy," he said.

Milliken noted that Manley's letter to supporters had referred to the next leader as "she or he" and he wondered whether the former deputy prime minister was referring to Stronach, the one woman known to be contemplating a candidacy. "She is probably Stephen Harper's worst nightmare because she has looked him in the eye and decided that he's not the right guy," Milliken said, "I think that might be quite useful in a Liberal leader."

Manley's decision freed a campaign network that Kania says is well placed to take advantage of a new leadership campaign finance law that will be tested for the first time by a major political party when candidates line up to succeed Martin. Although candidates with rich, generous family and friends may have an edge, none of them will be allowed to use giant or secret donations from corporations, their own bank accounts or from any other source to finance their campaigns.

The 13-month-old law gives an advantage to those who have already begun or are prepared for a mass fundraising effort based on quantity of donors rather than quantity of donation. Kania says the Manley camp is poised for that.

"I absolutely believed that we were going to win, so I'm disappointed," Kania said. "The person who's going to win is somebody who's going to be hitting the ground hard now and organizing really, really well."

The campaign-financing law is aimed at leveling the playing field by limiting single campaign contributions to $5,200 per donor. Candidates are allowed to contribute twice that, a maximum $10,400, to their own campaign. All donors must be disclosed to the public, although not necessarily before the vote, as candidates are granted time after the new leader is chosen to raise funds to pay campaign debts.

Travers seeks a few good men, and women

Liberals need to do a little soul-searching

Fissures in party are decades deep

Jan. 28, 2006. 01:00 AM

JAMES TRAVERS

Just days after defeat, federal Liberals are frenetically looking here, there and everywhere for a new saviour. Their time and energy would be better spent searching for the party's soul.

Liberals surprised themselves and Conservatives Monday by finding a good way to loose. Now, the country's dominant political force is in grave danger of missing for the second time the message voters delivered in two elections spread over 18 months.

An 11th-hour surge in June 2004 secured a minority victory. Last weekend, lingering discomfort with Stephen Harper and tough, misleading abortion advertising stampeded enough voters back to Liberals to cost Conservatives at least 14, mostly Ontario, seats and ensure a party that ruled almost unchallenged since 1993 wouldn't be reduced to a rump.

So, instead of licking wounds and learning lessons, Liberals today are feeling rather good about themselves. Paul Martin's wise, elegant and instant resignation pre-empted another round of patricide, strong ministers survived to give an inexperienced Conservative cabinet fits, and the popular vote held up well enough to help reduce a bulging financial burden.

All that stands between Liberals and their usual place at the top of the political heap and bottom of the public trough is an energizing leader and a few Conservative mistakes. Not quite.

Fissures in a party that once took pride in its cohesiveness now run decades deep. Martin is the first leader since Pierre Trudeau to leave before being knifed in the back and his successor's first job will be to restore some semblance of harmony.

"The party as a whole needs to get over the tribal feuding and regroup around some common ideas and beliefs," says John Manley, the former deputy prime minister who this week stepped out of the still unofficial race.

Liberals and the lengthening list of wannabe leaders should listen. A contemplative truce is necessary if the party is to discover if it still has a purpose beyond winning elections, managing power and rewarding its friends.

That's mostly what governing parties think about. They don't have the time or luxury to consider broad public policy options or defining values as they take care of helter-skelter business.

It wasn't their wish, but Liberals now have an opportunity for introspection. How they go about it, academic and former Trudeau adviser Tom Axworthy correctly argues, will make the difference between a short-term fix and a lasting, long-term repair.

Martin is the first leader since Trudeau to leave before being knifed in the back

"Just picking a new leader is the easy way to do it," Axworthy says. "In my view, it would be a mistake."

Leaving it to the successful contender to define the party would miss the point of the last two elections. Liberals not only blackened their brand with scandal and entitlement, they wandered so aimlessly between promise and delivery and muttered so much about obscure values that their image is hopelessly blurred.

To restore the brand and focus the image, Liberals beginning a traditionally gritty and opaque leadership contest must demonstrate saintly integrity while building from the ground up, not top down, a superstructure of clear values, innovative ideas and marketable policies.

Getting the sequencing right is essential. If their priority is having a leader in place if Harper fails, Liberals won't take time to reconsider what made Martin so appealing while he was toppling Jean Chrétien and why that support faded so fast.

Strange as it seems at the end of a continuum that began with majority and ended in defeat, Martin identified — but couldn't fully implement — a winning Liberal formula. Slashing the democratic deficit, preparing for wrenching economic changes and recognizing the importance of big cities are essential pieces of the 21st-century kaleidoscope.

But there are other large pieces that Martin's clique failed to grasp or arrange. They misunderstood Quebec's appetite for a federalist alternative, couldn't cope with a political right that was coalescing while the left fragmented or with a double power shift from east to west as well as from urban cores to the suburbs and beyond. Most of all, they missed that parties must deliver what they sell in an age when savvy consumers are all-powerful.

Sure, choosing the appropriate leader is fun and significant. Going back to the future with a Chrétien-era power-broker or even an influential Martin minister will shape a much different future than if Liberals opt for a fresh start, a clean slate.

But what's essential is that thoughtful Liberals rise on their hind legs to regain control of the party and set its course. That's not easy for an inclusive party standing uneasily in the mushy middle of the ideological spectrum.

It requires a complex process where leadership contenders become ordinary Liberals long enough to debate party identity and decide where it would take the country if again trusted with power.

After a long internal struggle, Conservatives know who they are and are mostly candid about the Canada they want. Liberals must now decide if they have the courage to endure the same cathartic process.

If not, they will be leaving it to yet another saviour to rediscover the party's soul.

A healing prescription for Liberals

By JOHN MANLEY

Thursday, January 26, 2006 Posted at 4:01 AM EST

From Thursday's Globe and Mail



In the aftermath of the elections of 2004 and 2006, Conservatives are savouring a victory, albeit a slim one, that they had not expected to come so soon. Liberals are wondering why and how their dominance of the Canadian political scene has ended so quickly, and what they must do to restore the trust of Canadians, which has been lost.

If Liberals believe that better campaign tactics and strategy were all that stood between them and continuing in government, we will fail to undertake the self-examination that an electoral defeat should cause. As a Liberal who hopes for the early return of a Liberal government, I believe there are several steps that are essential to the renewal of the party.

First, Liberals must, with humility, acknowledge the breach of trust that occurred with the Canadian people. Like it or not (and I don't), Canadians had their fill of a governing party that was seemingly always under investigation. In addition, the Liberal Party's belief that its values were closer to Canadian values than those of the Conservatives, and that the country would never elect Stephen Harper was not only arrogant, but a strategic error.

Second, Liberals must move quickly to heal the wounds within the party. The divisions that have been with the party since Pierre Trudeau's time have only been papered over. The belief, in the past two years, that the party's dominance over the opposition was so great that some Liberals were expendable was an error of gigantic proportions. If Liberals do not show respect for one another, how can the public be expected to respect Liberals?

The Liberal Party should be a political home for those who are socially progressive, economically responsible, and who possess a vision of the future of Canada that comprehends the challenges of competing in a world of giants. This is no time for Martin-Liberals to be fighting Chrétien-Liberals. Rather, it is a time for unhyphenated Liberals to work to renew their great political institution.

Third, the party must use this time outside government to focus on the big challenges of the day and prepare a program that appeals to moderate and progressive voters. Mr. Harper's successful wooing of many Ontario middle-class voters should be a reminder to Liberals that it is not enough to talk about "Liberal values" and good economic statistics. Middle-income Canadians have benefited from a healthy economy. However, their sense of personal safety has been affected by tragic and high-profile crime in our cities, and their sense of economic security is threatened by higher energy prices and job uncertainty, especially in the manufacturing sector.

Middle-class urban and suburban voters needed some indication that their leaders were listening. Instead, they got a "beer and popcorn" response that could only be seen as arrogant. This is a sure indication that it's time for policy renewal in the Liberal Party as we seek to secure Canada's place in the 21st century. I very much hope to be part of this renewal and believe that the choice of a new leader must not shortchange the need of the party to renew its ideals and reaffirm its beliefs.

Finally, the party must seek new leadership in the aftermath of Paul Martin's gracious announcement of his intention not to lead the Liberal Party into the next election. The first task of the new leader will be to unite and heal the party. She or he will then need to restore the sense of purpose and the idealism that are part of the Liberal tradition. (While I hope to play a role in the renewal, healing and unification of the Liberal party, I have decided for personal reasons that I will not be a leadership candidate.)

All of this is a tall order for a party whose supporters no doubt feel somewhat dispirited and bruised. But the work must be done. Canadians have shown that they want the ability to choose between alternative governments. The task of the Liberal Party is to pick itself up from an electoral defeat and be prepared to offer a clear choice to Canadians whenever the next election may be held.

John Manley, an Ottawa-based lawyer with McCarthy Tétrault LLP, was deputy prime minister to Jean Chrétien.

Sigh...

Former deputy prime minister John Manley won't seek Liberal leadership at 0:17 on January 26, 2006, EST.

OTTAWA (CP) - Former deputy prime minister John Manley won't seek the Liberal leadership, The Canadian Press has learned.

Manley sent a letter late Wednesday night to friends and supporters informing them that he won't be a contender in the race to succeed Paul Martin, who announced his plan to step aside after leading the Liberals to defeat in Monday's election. "(Manley) is basically going to tell them, after thinking about it, he's not going to pursue the leadership of the party," a source close to Manley said. "He's got a life now. He's very much enjoying the work he's doing."

He couldn't be reached for comment late Wednesday.

Manley ran against Martin for the leadership in 2003 but pulled out of the race early when it became apparent that Martin could not be stopped. Martin made it clear Manley would not be welcome in his regime, offering him the plum assignment of ambassador to Washington.

Manley declined the offer and retired from public life, joining the law firm of McCarthy Tetrault as senior counsel.

The source said he's enjoyed being involved in major business deals and sitting on the boards of a number of corporations.

Former New Brunswick premier Frank McKenna took the Washington post after Manley turned it down. McKenna, now perceived to be the frontrunner to replace Martin, cleared the way for a leadership bid Wednesday, announcing that he's offered his resignation as ambassador to Stephen Harper, the Conservative prime minister-designate.

The source said Manley was not daunted by the prospect of facing McKenna in a leadership contest. Rather, at 56, Manley simply felt the time was not right for him to attempt a political comeback.

Another political ally said Manley made up his mind not to run some time ago, adding the newspaper article outlining his intentions had been written before McKenna offered his resignation.

Among other things, Manley had to consider the possibility that the next leader of the Liberal party could be sitting on the opposition benches for years to come.

Manley was frustrated during the 2003 leadership contest by what he considered the party brass's attempts to rig the rules to ensure a Martin coronation. Some Liberals suspect the party is now attempting to do the same thing again, preparing to set an early fall date for the leadership convention, something that would favour McKenna.

McKenna is likely to inherit Martin's political machine.

Some Liberals have argued that the next leader needs to be someone who was in no way involved with the 10-year civil war between Martin and his predecessor, arch-rival Jean Chretien. Manley served as deputy prime minister, industry minister, foreign affairs minister and finance minister under Chretien and has clashed with Martin in the past.

However, the source said Manley has built bridges to both camps since leaving politics and did not feel his association with the Chretien regime would be a liability.

Edinburgh University's Centre of Canadian Studies Analysis? Who knew!

Full Article

Now hear is the section on liberal leadership:

The Liberal crown

When Paul Martin conceded defeat early on Tuesday morning, he noted that it had not been an easy evening "but there will be another time". Canadian political history tells us he is correct, not least because the Liberal Party of Canada can orchestrate itself in various ideological directions to mount effective electoral challenges. Beyond the gossip about the reasons for Michael Ignatieff's decision to return to Canada and seek public office, or rumours of Bob Rae, the former NDP premier of the Ontario, joining the Liberals to seek the leadership, there are plenty of significant contenders within Liberal Party ranks who may emerge in the coming weeks.

Frank McKenna (the former Liberal premier of New Brunswick, now serving as Canada's ambassador to the United States), John Manley (the former minister of foreign affairs), Brian Tobin (the charismatic Liberal politician from Newfoundland) and Allan Rock (Canada's current ambassador to the United Nations who held ministerial portfolios of industry, health and justice) are all potential candidates. In short, before too long, Harper may find that he has a tough, well-motivated Liberal opposition to fight down.

Colleen Beaumier M.P. - Manley Supporter '02, will she come again?

Photo by Ken Hay Liberal MP Colleen Beaumier learned of her re-election in the riding of Brampton West while surrounded by supporters and well-wishers Monday night.

Liberal Beaumier re-elected in Brampton West

PAM DOUGLAS

Long-time Liberal incumbent Colleen Beaumier ran away with the Brampton West riding, capturing 49 per cent of the vote compared to Conservative challenger Bal Gosal's 35.7 per cent.

Beaumier said she never doubted the outcome, and the veteran MP said she is looking forward to taking on a different role as part of the opposition in Stephen Harper's Conservative minority government.

Beaumier, 61, said the solid base of support she has built in the riding is what brought her a fifth straight victory at the polls.

"I know that the polls sometimes indicated there was a change, but we never really doubted that we were going to win it," she said after being declared the winner.

"We knew our base was there," Beaumier said.

The race was not as tight as the one she faced last election against Conservative Tony Clement. Beaumier finished with about 8,000 votes more than Gosal. Approximately 4,000 votes separated her and Clement last time.

Nationally, her party did not fare as well, she acknowledged. Beaumier said it's time for a re-birth of her Liberal Party and she plans to play a role in that re-birth after winning in her riding of Brampton West for a fifth term.

"Canadians are Liberals at heart," she said during a victory party at the Royal Banquet Hall on Statesman Drive. "But they'd like to see some new ideas, some new vision, and I'm really looking forward to it. I think the change has to come from within the party."

No change in Brampton

As the national results came in Monday night, she predicted a "bloodbath" within the party in the aftermath of a Harper victory. Two hours later, Paul Martin announced he would step down as Liberal leader.

Unofficial results showed Beaumier with 49.1 per cent of the vote with 28,002 compared to Gosal's 35.7 per cent, or 20,358 votes. NDP candidate Jagtar Shergill earned 6,274 (11 per cent), and Green Party candidate Jaipaul Massey-Singh garnered 2,400 votes (4.2 per cent). Voter turnout was 59.8 per cent of the 95,412 eligible voters, according to preliminary results.

Beaumier said her campaign didn't really start until January 5.

"We felt people didn't want to be disturbed at Christmas," she said.

She said the Conservative call for change didn't work in Brampton.

"Why change? We have the best economy in years, unemployment is the lowest it's been, interest rates are low."

She said she is ready to play a different role in the House of Commons as a member of the opposition.

She has never held a cabinet post, but says she works hard in her constituency.

"It isn't always the positions that you hold in Ottawa that make you a good MP," Beaumier noted.

To criticism that she said little in the House of Commons during the past 18 months, Beaumier said the reason is not a mystery in light of the fact she supported John Manley, not Martin, during the Liberal leadership debate.

"I was marginalized, or perhaps I allowed myself to be marginalized, but I was loyal to him (Martin)."

She said there was a lot of "crap" going on in the House last term, and "I was embarrassed to sit in the House sometimes."

She said she isn't happy that Stephen Harper is going to be Prime Minister, but with a minority government, "we can hold him to the centre."

"He isn't a Progressive Conservative, he's a Reformer, and it frightens me, for our social programs and everything we have in this country," she said.

When asked what her own future holds, she said, "I don't know. That will depend on how successful I am in directing what I think the (Liberal) party should be."

The election night mood was somber at La Suhaag Banquet Hall on Hedgedale Road where Gosal supporters gave the Conservative candidate a standing ovation as he walked in just before midnight.

Thanking his campaign workers and his family, Gosal, 45, said the local results were disappointing, but nationally the election was about a new beginning for Canada.

"I guess people in Brampton weren't ready for change," Gosal said after his conciliation speech. "At the door it was completely different."

He said his team ran an excellent campaign and he couldn't think of anything that he would do differently.

"It has been a long, long campaign," he told his supporters. "It officially began on November 29, however it really began in the spring of 2005 when I was honoured to be selected as the Conservative candidate for Brampton West. Since that night I have attended many meetings, local events and knocked on literally thousands of doors. Whatever the result, these last few months have taught me a great deal about my city and so many of the wonderful people who share this community."

He said he ran because he wanted a brighter future for his family and his community. He will go back to being an insurance broker, and continue his volunteer work in the community, he said.

Massey-Singh said he was happy with a 50 per cent increase in votes for his Green Party in the riding compared to last election, and he learned a lot about himself and his neighbours during the campaign.

"I realized there are a lot of people in our community who want change and are already working for change, but they feel the political process is not working for them," he said. "There are a lot of Greens in Brampton."

He spent the final days of the campaign talking to young voters, trying to inspire them to get involved in the political process, whether that is through voting or considering a political career.

During her time in Ottawa, Beaumier has been chair, vice-chair or member of subcommittees on human rights, veterans' affairs, public accounts and citizenship and immigration. After human rights violations were uncovered during the Somali inquiry, she introduced a private members' bill that increased transparency in the bureaucracy.

She is passionate about immigration, and has been working hard on the issue for years, she says, helping to make changes that will improve the system and money to upgrade and qualify foreign credentials in Canada.

She said she would like to be in a shadow cabinet, and her interests lie with seniors, immigration, the environment, health, and ensuring Canada has an independent foreign policy.

Leadership: Day 1 &1/2 - News Roundup

Who will succeed Paul Martin?

Joan Bryden

Canadian Press

Tuesday, January 24, 2006

OTTAWA -- Frank McKenna is waiting to see if he'll be fired as Canada's ambassador to Washington before deciding if he wants to leap into the Liberal leadership race.

"I've got to have some communication in the coming hours or days with the new prime minister and then make some decisions on a couple of things," the putative front-runner said in an interview.

McKenna had gone to bed by the time Paul Martin, faced with the defeat of his government in Monday's election, announced he won't lead the Liberals into the next election.

Roused from his sleep by The Canadian Press, McKenna said he wasn't surprised Martin decided to step aside. Indeed, he'd been advised of Martin's decision before going to bed.

"It's what I would've done on election night under those circumstances, clean and to the point and honourable and respectful. It's what I would've anticipated."

Canada's ambassador to Washington is traditionally a political appointment. Conservative Leader Stephen Harper, who won a minority government Monday, will likely want to replace McKenna, a former Liberal premier of New Brunswick, with a Tory appointee who more closely shares his political philosophy.

Asked if he expects to be replaced, McKenna said: "That's an issue I need to address with the prime minister before I talk about it publicly."

A longtime friend and political ally of McKenna's said the former premier is a "political addict" and will be very tempted to plunge into the leadership contest.

However, the ally said McKenna is also "very careful about his career. He doesn't do things he doesn't think he can win."

But unlike the coronation of Martin two years ago, the next Liberal leader will be chosen from a potentially large field of contenders. As many as 10 candidates could end up contesting the next race.

Other potential candidates refused to rule themselves out of the game last night.

John Manley, former deputy prime minister, acknowledged some Liberals have urged him to run.

"Some may want a dynamic, charismatic leader -- some others may support me," he joked during a CBC panel.

And Manley sounded like a candidate already when he talked about the "real need for healing."

"The tribalism that has divided (the party) is not healthy. If we don't show respect for one another, it's hard to persuade Canadians to show respect for us."

But Manley later told The Canadian Press: "I have some thinking and consulting to do. I won't be saying anything until I'm ready."

Brian Tobin, former Newfoundland premier and federal cabinet minister, said he continues to "fulfil my obligations in private life" but did not rule out returning to the political arena.

He urged the party to take its time selecting a new leader.

"There is no need to rush recklessly ahead," Tobin said.

Toronto MP Maurizio Bevilacqua was also sounding statesmanlike, calling for the party to put the lingering feud between the Martin and Chretien camps behind it.

"We do not have the luxury to not include everybody," the victorious Bevilacqua said in an interview.

"Tonight's results should not become an opportunity for people to fingerpoint but rather an opportunity to focus on the future."

Bevilacqua, who at 45 is one of the youngest possible successors, said the party needs to "reach out to a new generation of Liberals across the country" and put the infighting of the past behind them."

Michael Ignatieff, the acclaimed Harvard academic who won election for the first time in Etobicoke-Lakeshore, has been touted as a possible future leader. But his supporters had hoped he'd have some time to learn the ropes as an MP before having to contemplate a shot at the top job.

"I don't want to think, talk, discuss leadership at all," Ignatieff told the CBC.

© The Canadian Press 2006

___________________________________________________________________

Martin hands reins to Harper

Jan. 24, 2006. 10:53 AM

OTTAWA (CP) — Paul Martin has informed Gov. General Michaelle Jean that he's vacating the prime minister's job after Monday's Conservative election victory. Martin, 67, told Jean of his intention to resign by telephone this morning. The call was the first formal act in the transition of power from the Liberals to a Conservative minority government under Stephen Harper, 46. Harper's Tories won 124 of Parliament's 308 seats, while the Liberals took 103, the Bloc Quebecois 51 and the New Democrats 29. There was one independent elected.

___________________________________________________________________

Liberal leadership race starts today: experts

Liberal Leader Paul Martin speaks at his campaign headquarters in Montreal Monday night following the election loss.

John Manley is among the names being suggested for the Liberal leadership, CTV's Tom Clark said Tuesday.

Bill Graham, who was re-elected last night, said he has no interest in running for the leadership. He is shown here on Canada AM on Tuesday.

Belinda Stronach, who won re-election in her riding as a Liberal, is a possible surprise candidate for the party.

CTV.ca News Staff

Updated: Tue. Jan. 24 2006 9:42 AM ET

There are many questions this morning about the fate of the Liberal party, after Paul Martin announced he would be stepping down.

But one thing is clear -- the leadership race starts today, says CTV's Tom Clark. And that at least means Canadians won't have to face another election for at least a year and a half.

"Believe it or not, the next year and a half is going to be about the Liberal party, nobody else. Because the Liberals won't want to see this parliament brought down before they have a new leader."

Many weren't surprised that Martin would step down, after the Liberals won just 103 seats, compared to 124 for the Conservatives. But some were shocked at how quickly he announced his intentions.

"I will continue to represent with pride the people of LaSalle-Emard, but I will not take our party into another election as leader," Martin told his constituents in Montreal.

While he moved quickly, speculation about potential leadership candidates perhaps moved even faster.

Among names being suggested are the "usual suspects," as Clark calls them, of John Manley and Brian Tobin.

There may also be some surprising entries, such as Scott Brison and Belinda Stronach.

When asked this morning on Canada AM about whether she might run in the leadership, Stronach said with a smile: "You know, I'm here to serve."

Clark also suggested that Frank McKenna, Canada's ambassador to the United States, is "packing his bags as we speak" to come back to Canada. His intentions might be known fairly soon, as he would have to resign from his post.

Michael Ignatieff, Denis Coderre and Martin Cauchon have also been mentioned as possibilities.

"This is going to be a very interesting race to see who will succeed Paul Martin. One thing about the Liberals, they do not like losing," said Clark.

Bill Graham, who was re-elected last night, said he has no interest in running for the leadership. However, he said he is confident the party will pick the right person for the job.

"I think it will clearly be very, very important for the party to choose a new leader and the right leader that can bring together the wonderful strands across this country," said Graham.

"And I'm confident we will be able to do that."

In the meantime, Martin may pick an interim leader, said CTV's Robert Fife.

"I don't know this right now, but he may want to get out," Fife said.

"He's pretty beaten up right now, and certainly all the people who are around him will not be regarded very highly by anybody in the Liberal party."

© Copyright 2002-2006 Bell Globemedia Inc.

___________________________________________________________________
Conservatives to form a minority; Martin tells Gov. Gen. he's resigning

By JEFF SALLOT AND TERRY WEBER

Tuesday, January 24, 2006 Posted at 12:45 PM EST

Rideau Hall said the Liberal Leader spoke with the Governor General by telephone about 9.30 a.m. EST. The official announcement did not indicate when the new Conservative cabinet would be sworn in.

Pending recounts, the Conservatives won 124 seats to the Liberals' 103 in Monday's election. The Bloc Québécois won in 51 ridings and the NDP in 29.

As usual at election time, the senior federal bureaucracy has transition plans and briefing books ready in the event that a new government is elected. But Mr. Harper will need several days to decide on the size and makeup of his cabinet.

Mr. Harper is expected to begin consulting with party veterans and new members of his caucus today. The consultations and security vetting process could take ten days to two weeks.

Mr. Martin, who said Monday he won't lead the Liberals into another election, kept a low profile. He planned no public appearances.

Also this morning, Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe tried to put the best possible face on his party's performance in the election. The Bloc lost seats and share of the popular vote in Quebec, after Mr. Duceppe's initial campaign boasts that the separatist party would win more than half the popular vote.

"We finished first [in Quebec] for the fifth consecutive time," Mr. Duceppe told a news conference, noting that Bloc candidates also knocked off several Liberal cabinet ministers. "We have the balance of power in Ottawa."

Canadians decided Monday to cautiously change the national government, giving Harper's Conservatives a slim minority and tethering the other parties to a short leash in the new House.

The results suggest that the new government may be able to function for at least 18 months, the average life for minorities in Canada.

The defeat of Mr. Martin's Liberals, and his announcement that he's stepping down as leader, sets off a leadership race that will pre-occupy that party for months, killing any appetite for forcing an early election.

Jack Layton's New Democrats increased their standings in the House, but fell short of the numbers needed to hold a clear balance of power.

Canadians don't want another election soon, Mr. Layton told supporters in Toronto on Monday night.

Today, at a news conference, Mr. Layton said the new Parliament could continue "for months and years" as long as the Conservatives co-operate to produce results for working families.

"I'm very optimistic for the future," Mr. Layton said.

The new NDP caucus isn't large enough to prop up the Tories on a confidence vote in the face of a united opposition from the Bloc and Liberals. But Mr. Layton said holding a mathematical balance of power is "overrated."

A tight confidence vote could be decided by the sole independent elected Monday, colorful former Quebec radio show host André Arthur, a federalist.

The Bloc lost seven seats and its share of the popular vote was reduced as the Conservatives picked up seats in Quebec, establishing the Tories as a second federalist option in the province.

The Conservative breakthrough in Quebec means that Canada now has two parties with MPs from all regions of the country for the first time since 1993.

In his victory speech in Calgary, Mr. Harper reached out to the other parties and leaders. He said Canadians owed Mr. Martin thanks for his service to the country and he congratulated Mr. Layton and Mr. Duceppe for running "solid and honourable campaigns … We are all democrats."

Recognizing that his minority is slim, Mr. Harper said: "To those who did not vote for us, I pledge to work for all of us."

But he made it clear he feels he has a sufficient mandate to pursue his core five planks of his platform: a federal accountability act to clean up government, cuts in the hated GST, tougher anti-crime measures, childcare credits, and reduced wait times for medical care.

Voters have asked all the parties to work together, Mr. Harper said. "We're going to govern with an open mind" and may make mistakes from time to time, he added.

New Democrats indicated throughout the campaign that they might find common ground with the Conservatives on several Tory priorities, including cleaning up government.

"We'll not just oppose, we'll propose in a way that's is balanced and fiscally responsible," Mr. Layton said Monday night.

One of Mr. Harper's first tasks will be to put together a cabinet that is balanced geographically and includes old stock Tories as well as representatives from the Reform/Alliance wing of the party.

Almost certain to join the cabinet are new Quebec MP Lawrence Cannon, a former provincial Liberal minister, Deputy Leader Peter MacKay of Nova Scotia and Rona Ambrose, an up and coming bilingual Albertan who performed well in opposition.

Some veteran Western MPs who have been with the Reform/Alliance/Conservative movement through its various permutations for years may be disappointed.

Mr. Martin conceded defeat shortly after midnight, telling supporters he had called his opponent to offer his congratulations and said he wouldn't lead the party in the next election.

"I will continue to represent with pride the people of LaSalle-Émard but I will not take our party in to another election as leader," he said.

"In the coming days, I will consult with the party leadership as to how best to ensure an orderly transition and an effective leadership in the House of Commons and the party."

There is no shortage of possible Liberal leadership candidates.

They include Frank McKenna, the former New Brunswick premier who is now ambassador in Washington; former Harvard professor Michael Ignatieff who won a seat in a Toronto riding Monday; former cabinet minister Martin Cauchon from Quebec and Ontario MP Maurizio Bevilacqua.

Other possibles are former deputy prime minister John Manley, former Newfoundland premier Brian Tobin, and Liberal MPs Joe Volpe, Scott Brison, and Belinda Stronach, who once ran for the Conservative leadership.

The Conservative gains came on the back of a swell in support in Central Canada, but the Liberals still managed to cling to seats in some key regions — helping limit the Tories' overall advance.

The Conservatives managed roughly 36 per cent of the popular vote nationally compared with 30 per cent for the Liberals, 17 per cent for the NDP and 10 per cent for the Bloc.

In Quebec, the Conservatives increased their share of the popular vote more than 17 percentage points, managing to win the party's first federal seat in that province in five years. The Liberal popular vote in the province was down 14 percentage points. The shift also saw the Bloc's share of the popular vote slip 7 percentage points.

Similarly, in Ontario the Liberals' chunk of the popular vote was down 5 percentage points. In that province, the Liberals were elected in 55 seats — down from 74 in the last sitting — compared with the Conservatives' 39.

In British Columbia — where polls had suggested a three-way battle — the Conservatives were elected in 17 of 36 seats, down from 22 in 2004. The NDP were next with 10 and the Liberals followed at nine.

The NDP, which had 18 seats in the last Commons, managed double digit gains in terms of its seat count — to 29 from 18.

"Our Canada puts ordinary Canadians first and tonight ordinary Canadians in the millions put their trust in the NDP and took a step forward," Mr. Layton told an audience in Toronto.

"We won't let you down."

Mr. Duceppe, meanwhile, promised Quebeckers a "responsible" opposition in the next Parliament.

"We will make sure Quebec moves forward because we know everything that makes Quebec move forward moves us forward toward sovereignty," he said.

___________________________________________________________________

Paul Martin steps down as Liberal party leader

Succession meeting soon. Martin stays on as LaSalle-Emard MP

PEGGY CURRAN

The Gazette

Tuesday, January 24, 2006

CREDIT: JOHN KENNEY, THE GAZETTE Prime Minister Paul Martin hugs a supporter in his LaSalle-Emard riding after conceding defeat to Stephen Harper and the Conservatives.

On the heels of a stunning defeat, Paul Martin last night announced he was stepping down as Liberal leader and will meet with party officials immediately to begin the process of succession.

Martin spent much of his life trying to become prime minister. For a while last night, it seemed he was in no rush to leave it behind. But when he finally stood on the podium at election headquarters, there was no equivocation. He told a small crowd of party faithful he would stay on as member for LaSalle-Emard but sign off as leader as soon as possible.

"Ours will be a strong opposition, and I will continue to represent my riding with pride."

With returns pointing to a minority government for Stephen Harper's Conservatives, the Liberal leader lingered at a downtown hotel playing cards with his wife, Sheila, and their three sons before finally heading to the podium at Buffet Sorrento to concede defeat, and face the future.

Embraced by a small but vocal crowd - made up largely of new Canadians - Martin began by expressing his thanks and support to voters in LaSalle-Emard who have voted for him since he was first elected 17 years ago. "I say thank you from the bottom of my heart.

"I want to express my gratitude to all those who have served with me in cabinet from coast to coast to coast. I am so proud of what we have achieved together."

He boasted of the Liberals' strengths, especially it's history of looking after those who might otherwise be neglected or fall through the cracks. "We endeavour to ensure that no Canadian is ever left behind."

While some of their candidates were defeated, Martin said this is not the end of the road. "There will be another chance, and there will be another time. To all those who ran under the Liberal banner ... you have done your party, and you have done your country, proud."

The Liberals have much to be proud of, he said, beginning with an invigorated economy, which has "restored confidence in a country whose spirit was almost broken."

Martin said he had just called Harper and congratulated him. "The people of Canada have chosen him to lead a minority government."

Long before Martin reached the stage, Liberal cabinet minister John Manley had laid a few cards on the table. Manley, himself touted as a likely contender for the Liberal leadership, dropped broad hints Martin should waste no time in stepping aside. Michael Ignatieff, the Liberal neophyte in Toronto also mentioned as a potential leadership candidate, said Martin had "fought like a tiger" and the Liberals were down but not out. "I don't want to think, talk about or discuss leadership," Ignatieff said.

However, other senior Liberals admitted their party has suffered the effects of the sponsorship scandals for the last two elections. Serious rebuilding would be needed before the party could regain the confidence of voters, particularly in vote-rich Ontario, where the Liberals surrendered more than 20 seats to the Tories and New Democrats.

As election results poured in, showing the Liberals taking a thumping across the country, the mood at election headquarters was morose. Only when Liberal candidates from Montreal ridings started to trickle in shortly before midnight did supporters put on a brave face.

"A lot of people would rather stay home than face someone when the new is bad," said campaign worker Ajaib Sandhu, recalling the night in June 2004 when jubilant supporters rattled red and white balloons to celebrate Martin's victory. Sandhu and Harjinder Singh Sohi, who spent the day ferrying Liberal voters to polling stations, confessed there was a gap between what they hoped and what they expected. "I wish Mr. Martin well, whatever happens," Sandhu said.

That Martin would hang on to LaSalle-Emard, a solid Liberal riding in west-end Montreal, was hardly in doubt, despite challenges from May Chiu, a 40-year-old lawyer running for the Bloc Quebecois, and insurance broker Georges-Alexandre Bastien, who carried the flag for the Tories. Bringing up the rear were the NDP's Russ Johnson and Serge Bellmare of the Green Party.

As the first votes were tallied, the Liberal leader remained cloistered with his wife and close advisers, assessing the extent of the damage - knowing the best they could hope for probably wouldn't be enough to salvage Martin's political career.

Or that he would even want to, after a lacklustre, gaffe-plagued, campaign where he was stuck playing defence, fending off attacks from left, right and centre. No wonder Martin often looked battered and weary, under siege from the Bloc in Quebec and the Tories and NDP everywhere else.

pcurran@thegazette.canwest.com

Decision 2006

© The Gazette (Montreal) 2006

___________________________________________________________________ January 24, 2006 Leadership hopefuls emerging

By CP

OTTAWA -- Frank McKenna is waiting to see if he'll be fired as Canada's ambassador to the U.S. before deciding if he wants to leap into the Liberal leadership race.

McKenna said he wasn't surprised Martin decided to step aside -- indeed, he'd been advised of Martin's decision before going to bed.

Other potential candidates refused to rule themselves out of the game last night.

John Manley, former deputy prime minister, acknowledged some Liberals have urged him to run.

"Some may want a dynamic, charismatic leader -- some others may support me," he joked.

Brian Tobin, former Newfoundland premier, said he continues to "fulfil my obligations in private life" but did not rule out returning.

Michael Ignatieff, the acclaimed Harvard academic who won election for the first time in Etobicoke-Lakeshore, has been touted as a possible future leader.

But his supporters had hoped he'd have some time to learn the ropes as an MP before having to contemplate a shot at the top job.

"I don't want to think, talk, discuss leadership at all," Ignatieff told the CBC.

Leadership: Day 1

How predictable of Jason... I bet he got a phone call from up on high telling him to push McKenna tonight.

Jason Cherniak and the style of blindly following leadership hopefuls is a symptom, and very symbolic of what is wrong in the liberal party today.

The liberal party needs to return to its policy core, and rediscover what we stand for. A strong Canada, where all provinces are treated equally. A core fault of the Martin Liberals was to make side deals (mostly about money) without considering the long term implications to other provinces.

The party needs a race that is not a coronation. Where the leadership (edit) doesn't feels free to arrogantly ignore policy passed on the convention floor, dismissing it with an off the cuff remark.

John Manley Deals With Post Secondary

November 18, 2002 Vol. 32 No. 12

---

Five questions for
John Manley
An exclusive Gazette interview with
the Deputy Prime Minister

Q.How important is supporting post-secondary education for the federal government?

A.It’s been one of the themes we have pursued consistently in budgets since 1996 when we started the Canadian Foundation for Innovation. It has included a lot of initiatives such as the Millennium Scholarship, the Canada Research Chairs, increased funding for the granting councils and creation of the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, which links very closely to the universities. That has been a consistent and continuing theme of the federal government, and one that I intend to see continued.

Q.What can you as finance minister do to make permanent the funding of indirect research costs?

A.It’s a matter of affordability in relation to all of the other demands for funding. My hope is that we can maintain that contribution. I know from the universities I’ve met with, that it is their first priority and when we get closer to budget day, we’ll see what we can do about it.

Q.According to the AUCC, there will be approximately 30-40,000 new faculty needed to address growth and retirement concerns. What can the federal government do to address this situation?

A.That is an issue that has been raised at some of our discussions with the universities. I don’t think anyone has shown me a plan yet of what a program would look like to increase the number of graduate students and keep them here. I think that is what would be required, but it would have to go into the mill with the other things that need to be done for universities. I know it’s a growing concern at the university level as a generation of university teachers gets close to retirement.

Q.With tuition fees continuing to rise, does the federal government have any plans for the Canada Student Loans program, or any plans in general to help support undergraduate students?

A.The most recent things we’ve done is – in addition to the enhanced ability to save for student fees through RESPs – has been the deductibility of student loan interest, as well as the Millennium Scholarships and the increase in the exemptions for awards and scholarships under the income tax act. So that is the package thus far. I think we are going to need to continue to follow what’s happening and see if there are additional things we can and should do.

Q.As finance minister, what can you do to support the continued growth of research and innovation in Canadian universities?

A.I think there are a lot of things we can do; it’s a question again of what is affordable. We continue funding the foundations that support infrastructure development, CFI and CIHR in particular. There is continuing funding for the research granting councils and that funding includes the social sciences and humanities, which sometimes get forgotten in the mix, but I think they are important elements needing support. I think the incentives we have been working on for commercialization of research out of universities – support for targeted areas of research that complement the basic research, such as environmental technologies and information technologies – is important. I think there is a range of things that we have managed to do quite successfully and we need to enhance and continue.

Manley continues to engage media

Talks in today's Hill Times

"Campaigns are tough. I've been through a lot of them and they're roller coasters and in this campaign, the Liberal Party has a particular challenge of trying to win a fifth consecutive election, that's always going to be difficult but we'll wait and see what the result is on Monday."


Full Article

Blog Mentioned in Paper Column!

"Some Liberals who expect him to quit quickly and allow an interim leader to take his place are not waiting for the election to organize, with anonymous blog sites popping up promoting former Deputy PM John Manley and former Justice Minister Martin Cauchon for leader."

Full Article Below


Insiders concede defeat
MPs, organizers admit it's too late to stem Tory tide
By STEPHANIE RUBEC, PARLIAMENTARY BUREAU

Liberal Leader Paul Martin plays guitar with a band during a Franco-Manitoban party in the Ste Boniface district of Winnipeg on Saturday. (Paul Chiasson, CP)

BRAMPTON -- Liberal volunteers, organizers and even MPs are admitting certain defeat tomorrow night at the hands of Stephen Harper's Conservatives barring an 11th hour change of heart by Canadian voters.

As Grit troops fan across Canada in a last-ditch effort to turn the tide, they're weighed down by the latest polls that show the Conservatives remain in the lead and have gained substantial ground in Quebec.

Most Grits publicly insist there's still a chance their leader Paul Martin will "pull a rabbit out of the hat" and bring home a second Liberal minority government, but privately they admit that they've lost faith.

"I wish we were going to win but we are going to lose," said a long-time Liberal organizer working in Toronto who has booked a vacation to a sun destination next week to boost his spirits.

"I wish we could pick up just enough seats to pull it off."

When asked when he threw in the towel, the veteran Grit said "when we had no time left to rebound in the polls."

RUN OUT OF TIME

The latest public surveys have seen the Conservatives lead narrow slightly but continue to show Harper is expected to win the election and form a minority government.

Liberals say they've run out of time to convince Canadians to turn their back on Harper and shun NDP leader Jack Layton.

An MP of 18 years said there's little hope the tide will swing in his party's favour by tomorrow, but he's convinced he'll win his Toronto-area seat.

"I will be enjoying my time in opposition," the MP said. "Been there before and had fun. I will have fun again."

The Parliamentarian said there remains a glimmer of hope Canadians will chose Martin over Harper tomorrow but predicted a certain loss in his neighbouring ridings.

A Liberal minister's senior aide forecast voters will hand the Tories a slim five to 10 seat advantage in the Commons, adding if southwestern Ontario goes blue then other ridings are sure to follow.

The aide said there's a silver lining to defeat, pointing out that a small minority would make Harper vulnerable to defeat on his first budget vote and see a likely comeback by the Liberals.

"It (a Conservative government) won't last as long as ours did because they don't have the acumen to do it," the Liberal said.

Optimistic Grits say they're pinning their hopes on those undecided voters who they say often cast their ballot for Grit candidates in the past.

"We have to wait and see what the turnout is going to be -- there's still a high percentage of undecided," said Liberal candidate Janko Peric who was an MP in Jean Chretien's and Martin's government until he lost the 2004 election.

"I think people are waiting for the last minute to make that decision. I'm hoping that they're going to see through ... what kind of Canada Stephen Harper is offering."

Another Toronto-area MP said if his party survives and remains in government it's because local organizers succeeded at getting the undecided and traditional Liberal supporters to the polls tomorrow.

"In the 905, 416 area we're winning. As long as we stay on message we'll be okay," the longtime MP said.

Grits are divided on whether they expect Martin to step down immediately and launch a leadership race or if he'll find enough support to stay on in the event of a slim Conservative victory.

Some Liberals who expect him to quit quickly and allow an interim leader to take his place are not waiting for the election to organize, with anonymous blog sites popping up promoting former Deputy PM John Manley and former Justice Minister Martin Cauchon for leader.

stephanie.rubec@tor.sunpub.com

Manley Speaks of current election

Meanwhile, in Ottawa yesterday, an old leadership rival said that while the campaign may not have been a shining moment, it won't be Martin's fault if the Liberals lose on Monday night.

"He's fighting a tough election and he has to carry with him a lot of baggage, some of which is his and some of which he's inherited," said John Manley, who served as Jean Chrétien's deputy prime minister.

"That's not a fault of his. That's just the reality of the situation that exists."

Manley wouldn't take aim at Martin's inner circle of advisers whom some blame for a flawed campaign. "I don't think it's helpful to stand outside and criticize," he said.

Instead, Manley said the Liberals' biggest handicap throughout this campaign is simply the fact that they are asking voters to return them to office a fifth time.

"There is no doubt that, over a period of time, you develop a confidence around your own processes and decision-making, which gives you a sense of self-assurance, but which, on the other side of the table, can easily come across as insensitivity and arrogance," Manley said. "And I don't know if there is a way a government that's been a long time in office can avoid that."

Rest of Article

Proof

"A proof is a proof. What kind of a proof? It's a proof. A proof is a proof. And when you have a good proof, it's because it's proven."

I think it has been proven that Paul Martin has to go, and can't be replaced with a Hurle stooge. Even if one was to try, who would want to connect themselves to such a 'loyal' braintrust.

Liberal leadership could lose its allure

I think Jim Travers greatly underestimates John Manley... Just as any former Martin sycophant would...

Jan. 19, 2006. 01:00 AM
JAMES TRAVERS

It's hard to argue that Liberals don't deserve the rough justice heading their way. Too long in power, too often caught putting friends first and too willing to let political expediency torque public policy, a party that ruled mostly unchallenged since 1993 now finds the cause of its current misery in the mirror.

Tilting to optimism over experience, voters in 2004 gave Paul Martin a rare second chance. It was squandered and a prime minister who measured every inch of the distance between expectations and delivery now faces a soul-searing examination of what went wrong.

There's residual unfairness in that judgment and in what waits for Martin. Four consecutive Liberal mandates made Canada economically stronger as well as arguably better and there are bright moments in a prime ministerial performance now booked for a brief run.

Still, the consensus sweeping the country is sound. Between the 2003 Liberal leadership race and this election, the ruling party gutted its brand while Martin wandered in a labyrinth of indecision.

So Liberals are about to experience what happens when fear no longer trumps hope and putting a crowbar to the status quo suddenly isn't scary. Barring recoil from the prospect of a Stephen Harper majority, a party defined by power is just days away from being rooted from it.

Fair enough. But how much punishment is in the national interest?

A vibrant democracy demands a viable alternative. The next Parliament will need a robust opposition as much as the last four suffered in its absence.

Voters will make that happen Monday. Or they could reduce Liberals to a rump.

In either case, the anticipated Conservative victory will see the ever-pleasant, long-suffering Sheila Martin abruptly drag her husband back to their sheep farm in Quebec's bucolic Eastern Townships. But the severity of the punishment is much more significant to a party shuffling towards the renewal phase of the political lifecycle.

What Liberals know is this: Chances of attracting top-tier leadership contenders fall with the rise in seats lost. "We need to rebuild quickly from a position of strength," says a lifetime Liberal and senior Martin cabinet minister. "We can't do that if we are wiped out."

That's important, and not just for the party. Liberals exaggerate wildly when they equate themselves with Canadian values and unity, but they do represent a specific set of priorities that are germane to the current, and coming, national debate. But Liberals who last took an introspective look 13 years ago are now as confused about the party's mission and vision as they are divided by bitter jealousies. The coherence and discipline that come with strong leadership are urgently required.

In the past, capable and occasionally extraordinary champions were drawn to the party by the magnet force of power. Liberal leaders, unlike those of other parties, are all but guaranteed to be prime ministers.

On Monday, that guarantee could be null and void. If Liberals tumble to, say, 85 seats from the 133 they held or, worse still, win less nationally than the Bloc in Quebec, those big names touted as the next saviours will be busy elsewhere when Liberals come knocking.

Age, better prospects and the bleakness of four or eight years dragging the party back to competitiveness won't appeal to Frank McKenna, Michael Ignatieff or even John Manley. Stripped to base metal, the once-gilded trophy of federal politics will be most attractive to an unknown new generation and election survivors who would be also-rans in more illustrious races.

Ontario's Joe Volpe and Quebec's Martin Cauchon top a list that also includes an exception. If the young are found wanting and the more experienced step aside, the great goalie and now Martin minister Ken Dryden could step up. Revered in Quebec, admired everywhere, his resumé includes business as well as hockey and politics.

It's possible Dryden could win any leadership contest. But what's far more certain is the line forming for the Liberal leadership will grow or shrink in direct proportion to Monday's results.

That's not a sound reason for Canadians to reconsider their first choice — strategic voting leads to unpleasant surprises. But it's the collateral damage waiting for Liberals at the end of this train-wreck campaign.

Without Martin, economy is still strong

It was true in 2002, and it is true now. (in this old story, of course the statistics are old.)

Sherry Cooper

National Post

Friday, June 07, 2002

They said it about Paul Volcker, John Crow and Robert Rubin. They said that no one could ever fill their shoes, the markets would tumble and all credibility would be lost. They say it now as well about Alan Greenspan, the nearly octogenarian Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. His successor could never garner the respect and admiration that the Maestro enjoys. But just as we have seen this week with the exit of Paul Martin, no one is irreplaceable. No single individual really matters that much. The institutions that surround them and the political and economic climate assure an orderly progression. That is not to belittle the role that Mr. Martin has played in eliminating our budget morass and returning Canada to the triple-A status it so rightly deserves; but the machinery of the markets is much too big to allow one individual to seriously knock it off course.

And the course that Canada is on is a great one. I have just returned from a seven-city speaking tour of Europe. It felt like the old days -- the rooms were full and the interest was keen. To be sure, many were interested mainly in Canadian gold stocks, but the turnaround in the economy, the currency, and the basic industry stocks was noted and appreciated.

Canada is now a top performer. We have the strongest economy in the G7 with the best growth prospects for this year and next. We are the only G7 country with a dual surplus, in our trade and current accounts, as well as in our federal budget. Our debt ratio has plunged from a high of 71% in 1995 to around 47.5% and falling, today. With Japan's debt ratio at an unprecedented 140% or so, Canada's fiscal position is nothing short of miraculous. That is why Moody's upgraded us to triple-A status on May 3.

With the economy on wheels, consumer confidence at a 14-year high and the Bank of Canada flexing its muscles independently of the Fed, it is not surprising that Paul Martin's exit was met with only passing interest. Stories in the European Wall Street Journal, Herald Tribune and London Financial Times lauded his accomplishments, but went on to compliment the choice of John Manley as his successor and assure that fiscal restraint would likely continue. The Canadian dollar barely missed a beat.

For sure, the big case for Canada today is rising commodity prices. Gold prices recently hit a 4 1/2-year high as investors fear continued turmoil in India-Pakistan and the Middle East. The looming threat of additional terrorist attacks on the United States, coupled by the self-inflicted accounting scandals, Wall Street research probes and earnings disappointments, continue to depress the dollar and encourage foreigners to park at least some of their capital elsewhere. In this environment, gold stocks are seen as a safe haven. All the materials sectors of the TSX have put in a stellar performance this year. Merchandising companies, as well, have been boosted by the robust consumer.

Inflation, though moderately above the Bank of Canada's target, will not be a problem this cycle. Inflation tends to decline in the first year of economic expansion in lagged response to the excess capacity of the earlier slowdown. Moreover, the Bank has proven itself to be ever vigilant on the inflation front, likely hiking interest rates on every statement date for the remainder of this year. A strong performance in the stock market as a whole awaits a meaningful earnings rebound outside of basic industries; but, on an exchange-adjusted basis (accounting for the upward movement in the loonie), the TSX has outperformed the S&P 500 this year by a whopping 1,200 basis points, or 12 percentage points. Interest-rate differentials between Canada and the United States will continue to widen, thanks to a proactive Bank of Canada, so bond investors are taking note as well. Canada is increasingly the place to be -- not a bad time for a rookie Finance Minister to cut his teeth.

The risks are there, as always. A large and precipitous decline in the U.S. dollar would be destabilizing for the global economy. That is why central banks from Switzerland, to Australia to Japan are defending the U.S. dollar. Too sharp a rise in non-U.S. dollar currencies would snuff out the nascent rebound in domestic exports and dampen the domestic economy. But a precipitous drop in the greenback is unlikely. The U.S. dollar is still the only true reserve currency. Until Britain adopts the euro, it will be a far distant second. The U.S. growth pace will still be double the European average this year, and U.S. productivity growth is second to none in the world. As top-line revenues rebound, bottom-line profits will as well. So foreign interest in American assets will continue, albeit at a more tepid pace than in the past few years.

Canada now has its day in the sun. It has been a long time in coming, and even Mr. Martin's departure will not rain on this event.

© National Post 2002

Anglo News Talk in Montreal Assumes New Leadership race

Cauchon jockeying to replace Paul Martin
2006-01-17 08:16:28

New polls out this morning paint a dismal picture for the Federal Liberal party heading into next Monday's election.
And with Paul Martin so far unable to stem the tide of Tory support sweeping the country, Liberals are already positioning themselves to take his job if he's forced to step down.
Front and centre in that political jockeying is Martin Cauchon, the former justice minister who used to be the MP for Outremont, a riding that Jean Lapierre may lose to the Bloc Quebecois.
La Presse reports that Cauchon will be making a public appearance Thursday to help the Liberal campaign in one of the only strongholds they have left, the Greater Toronto Area.
The paper suggests the Liberal candidates from the Toronto region are ready to back Cauchon as Liberal leader.
Cauchon tells La Presse, however, that he has not made his final decision, adding he will speak with former Prime Minister Jean Chretien first.
La Presse also names other possible replacements: Ambassador to the United States Frank McKenna, former finance minister John Manley, Liberal candidate in Etobicoke Michael Ignatief, Immigration minister Joe Volpe and Toronto Liberal MP Maurizio Bevilacqua.
At 44-years-old, Cauchon would be one of the youngest candidates to succeed Paul Martin, who's 67.

"The party is going into the repair shop for a while ... to get a new leader"

Vote NDP just this once, Layton urges Liberal voters

James Gordon

The Ottawa Citizen

Tuesday, January 17, 2006

TORONTO -- Federal NDP leader Jack Layton put a new twist on attempts to siphon votes from his opponents Monday, begging disaffected Liberals to "lend" him their votes while their own party "regenerates."

"Vote for us just this once, in this election, so there is a strong voice in the next Parliament that is standing up for the priorities progressive people believe in," he told a group of students at a Toronto community college.

Layton added the Liberals will be "going into the repair shop for a while" to work on their ethical issues, and will thus be thinking more about themselves than voters' priorities.

While the New Democrat insisted he wouldn't predict the outcome of the election, his tone and message appeared to suggest the NDP now believes in the strong possibility Conservative leader Stephen Harper will be the next prime minister of Canada.

Asked if this was the case, however, Layton retreated to his prepared press lines.

He also employed the strategy when asked to clarify whether "going into the repair shop" was code for a Liberal leadership change, and pressed to elaborate on his vote-lending strategy.

Speculation has been rampant over Prime Minister Paul Martin's future if he loses the Jan. 23 vote, with media and pundits already lining up his successors. Former deputy prime minister John Manley, Canadian ambassador to Washington Frank McKenna and Toronto star candidate Michael Ignatieff have been mentioned among the front-runners.

Layton and his wife, fellow Toronto candidate Olivia Chow, laughed when it was suggested the vote-lending proposal was tantamount to asking people to hold their noses and vote NDP this time.

"We're saying, 'Here's and opportunity for you.' This election,'" Layton said. "Hey look, the first step is always the most important."

The NDP hopes the strategy will sway voters in Greater Toronto, a long-time Liberal fortress. Ex-city councillor Chow is currently in the midst of another tight battle in her riding of Trinity-Spadina -- a riding she has lost twice before.

The offensive coincided with the release of a new television ad featuring what the NDP calls "former Liberals who are choosing Jack Layton" this time.

When he was finished with the Grits, Layton moved on to wooing Red Tories uncomfortable with Stephen Harper at the helm.

Playing on Harper's negative views on same-sex marriage and government-run social programs, Layton suggested the word "progressive" was dropped from the Conservative name for a reason.

"If you voted in the past for prudent, step-by-step progress, there is nothing of that in Stephen Harper's party today," he said.

Layton wrapped up the day courting the youth vote with a visit to the Toronto studios of MuchMusic.

Dressed down for the occasion (he wasn't wearing a tie), Layton chatted about standard NDP priorities like education and the environment before hoping on an exercise bike at the request of Much On Demand co-host Leah Miller.

Earlier, the mustachioed politician was presented with an orange T-shirt bearing a cartoon version of his face and the slogan, "Don't Trash the 'Stache."

© The Vancouver Sun 2006

Our favorite Minister goes to Nasa!

After more than nine days in space, Canadian Space Agency (CSA) astronaut Julie Payette's mission came to an end at precisely 2:03 a.m.when Space Shuttle Discovery completed a perfect landing. The Honourable John Manley, Minister of Industry Canada and Minister responsible for the CSA, accompanied by Mr. Daniel Goldin, Chief of the NASA, Mr. Mac Evans, President of the CSA, was present at Kennedy Space Center in Florida to greet Julie.

John Manley, Minister of Industry Canada, poses with Canadian Space Agency astronaut Julie Payette after the perfect landing of space mission STS-96 on June 6, 1999.

Minister of Industry John Manley (left) discusses with Canadian Space Agency astronaut Julie Payette who spent nearly 11 days aboard Discovery during mission STS-96 for the assembly of the International Space Station.

Minister of Industry John Manley and CSA President Mac Evans inspect Space Shuttle Discovery on Kennedy Space Centers Runway 15 after its landing on June 6, 1999.

Full Image Set

White House Meeting

I don't think Martin could ever have a civil conversation like this...

U.S. Homeland Security Director Tom Ridge and Canadian Deputy Prime Minister John Manley meet at The White House on Friday to discuss Border Security issues. They were joined by US Ambassador to Canada Paul Celluci and Canadian Ambassador to the US Michael Kergin. White House photo by Tina Hager.

Landmine Awareness!

Hon. Minister John Manley at dinner for Landmine Awareness (Ottawa) Dec. 3rd















Hon. Minister John Manley tours a student art exhibit at Rideau High School Landmine Awareness Day (Ottawa)
Landmine Awareness Day (Ottawa)

Martin may hang onto Liberal leadership even if he loses election

Hopefully he will do the honourable thing....


By JOAN BRYDEN

OTTAWA (CP) - Federal Liberals are growing increasingly resigned to losing power, but they're less certain they'll lose their leader.

Some veteran Grits are adamant that Paul Martin will have to resign immediately if he fails to win at least another minority government on Jan. 23. "If (Conservative Leader) Stephen Harper becomes prime minister, Paul Martin will have to step aside," said Toronto lawyer Andrew Kania.

Kania, who said he would support former deputy prime minister John Manley in any future leadership contest, is hopeful that Martin wouldn't need to be pushed into making a swift exit.

"Paul Martin has always been a good Liberal. I'm sure he'll do the right thing and step aside."

Others aren't so sure.

"It depends how strong the (Conservative) government is," said former Chretien-era minister Herb Dhaliwal.

Liberals would be wary of dumping their leader and embarking on a potentially divisive leadership contest if they feared the government could be toppled and the country plunged into an election at any time.

If Harper were to win a weak, unstable minority, Martin would be "cut some slack," Dhaliwal predicted. But in the case of a strong, stable Conservative minority, he said: "I think the writing's on the wall (for Martin)."

Another former minister, who didn't want to be named, predicted Martin would try to hang on no matter the election's outcome. Martin has spent so many years plotting to ascend to the throne, he's not about to give it up without a fight, the ex-minister said.

Other Liberals privately contend that even if Martin himself is willing to throw in the towel, his tight inner circle of advisers won't let him. Many have devoted years to getting Martin into the prime minister's office and will want another chance to prove they can get it right.

"They'll do everything they can to make him hang on," predicted one senior Liberal.

The ex-minister also described an alternate scenario making the Liberal rounds, based on the theory that if Harper were to win a minority Jan. 23, he'd have a good chance of turning that into a majority in a couple of years.

Under that scenario, Liberals might encourage Martin to stay to fight a third, losing election in order to give the party more time to rebuild from the ground up and to allow his eventual successor to remain untainted by electoral defeat.

"You use him as bait," the ex-minister said.

Martin was for years the undisputed and impatient heir apparent to Jean Chretien. At the moment, however, he has no single obvious successor, no one for his critics to rally around in an effort to hurry him out the door.

In any event, none of the potential contenders for the Liberal crown seems to be in any big rush.

A senior Manley strategist said the Liberal party has been mortally wounded by the ongoing civil war between the Martin and Chretien factions. A new leader would need to heal the wounds and unite the party - and calling for Martin's head on election night would be the worst way to embark on that mission, the strategist said.

Other potential contenders have their own reasons for being patient. Internationally acclaimed academic Michael Ignatieff needs to learn the ropes as an MP, assuming he wins his seat, before he can aspire to lead the party. Former ministers Martin Cauchon and Maurizio Bevilacqua are young enough to bide their time.

Former New Brunswick Premier Frank McKenna would need to time to get out of his current gig as Canada's ambassador to the U.S.

Implicit in all these Liberal musings about Martin's fate is a resigned acceptance of defeat on Jan. 23.

"At this point in time, people are essentially hoping the Conservatives don't get a majority," said Kania.

However, Kania and other Liberals do maintain some faint hope that the very possibility of a Conservative majority may yet scare enough voters back into the Liberal camp that Martin can eke out another minority.

Some Liberals brace for the worst

The worst would be Paulie holding on his his cold dead hands!
By MICHAEL DEN TANDT AND CAMPBELL CLARK

Friday, January 13, 2006 Page A1

With a report from Jane Taber




With 10 days to go in the federal election campaign, some veteran Liberals are openly conceding defeat, while others have begun quietly laying the groundwork for a leadership contest they believe will "renew" the party.

At the same time, senior Liberals are undertaking what amounts to a pre-election postmortem on Paul Martin's two-year tenure as Prime Minister and the current campaign.

"People are talking to me and saying, 'Well, who do you think can do well,' " former Liberal cabinet minister Herb Dhaliwal said. "I think if Paul Martin is defeated, he'll have no choice but to leave, particularly if there's a strong minority for the Conservatives."

Canada's ambassador to Washington, Frank McKenna, former finance minister John Manley, former fisheries minister Brian Tobin, Ontario cabinet minister Joe Volpe, Toronto-area MP Maurizio Bevilacqua and author Michael Ignatieff were quietly testing the leadership waters before the campaign began, and several have become more active since, insiders say.

"There's no question it's happening," said former Liberal MP John Nunziata, who held a Commons seat for 16 years, eventually sitting as an Independent, before losing in 2000. "There are people meeting surreptitiously -- certainly nothing very public. But each of the candidates, potential candidates, are working the lines. People are putting organizations together."

Mr. McKenna, in particular, appears to be gathering support. While he has been careful not to say that he's running for the leadership, he has been keeping in touch with key Liberals, insiders say.

"For a guy like McKenna, if he's calling people, it sends a message," one Liberal operative said. "I hear people are pushing him, promoting him and willing to work for him."

Recent polls have shown surging support for Stephen Harper's Conservatives, particularly in Quebec -- fuelling talk of a Tory majority.

Not surprisingly, much of the internal criticism of the Martin team comes from loyalists of former prime minister Jean Chrétien, from whom Mr. Martin wrested control of the party in 2003. Said one former Chrétien cabinet minister: "Harper's been able to bring people together. Martin hasn't."

The latest Strategic Counsel poll suggests increasing pessimism among professed Liberal supporters: 40 per cent of Liberals say they think the Conservatives will win on Jan. 23. That number has nearly doubled, from 23 per cent, in less than a week.

Mr. Martin, however, refused to concede defeat. "We were in the same position in the last election," he said in interviews yesterday. "And there was about the same time to go."

Liberal insiders say the decade-long war between Mr. Martin and Mr. Chrétien -- and Mr. Martin's failure to heal the wounds after his accession -- has hobbled the Liberal campaign. Many party organizers are sitting on the sidelines. Others were not asked to help.

One of these is Senator Jim Munsen, Mr. Chrétien's former communications director.

"Last time, I was asked, [strategist] Peter Donolo and myself, to participate in strategic conference calls, and this time I'm not," Mr. Munsen said. "But I wasn't surprised, because they have their own team, and that's the way it is."

Said Mr. Dhaliwal: "They decided, for whatever reason, that they needed to look like a whole new government and distance themselves from the Chrétien years, and get rid of all the people who have a national profile and could be helpful in the campaign. And they have not united the party."

Andrew Kania, Ontario organizer for Mr. Manley's failed 2003 leadership bid, said that if the Conservatives win, Liberals expect Mr. Martin to resign.

"At the end of the day, formally, I don't think there's going to be any campaign to remove Martin. But if there's a Conservative minority, how does he stay?" Mr. Kania said. "Everybody's quietly saying that if there's a Conservative minority or worse, he has to go."

Mr. Kania said that he has spoken to ethnic communities in Ottawa in the past two weeks, but said he networks "regardless of whether Mr. Manley is running."

"But it is obviously my hope and my expectation that he runs when it becomes appropriate, and I expect him to win."

A Conservative victory would force his party to rebuild, Mr. Kania said.

"It means it's going to be time to revitalize the Liberal Party. We're going to need to focus on the structure of the party. We're going to need to focus upon new policy and we're going to need to self-examine as to why this [loss] just took place."

Mr. Kania said he still believes the Liberals could win a minority.

"A lot of people want the Liberals to have a time-out this time, and they're not impressed with Martin personally. And I think that's a different conclusion than you actually want Harper to get a majority."

Some Liberals say the race is over, and argue a loss on Jan. 23 would benefit the party in the longer term. Some key thinkers, one Liberal senator said, "have been talking about the idea that maybe now is a perfect opportunity for renewal."

Others are less sanguine. Many Liberal MPs in Ontario are worried about their chances of winning. And the fingers are pointing at the national campaign.

One Liberal MP said he's pretty sure that Martin strategists are wearing "protective vests." And he said he feels no sympathy for Mr. Martin.

Even on the third, the Globe knew what was coming...

McKenna, Manley already laying groundwork for Liberal leadership?

By JANE TABER

Tuesday, January 3, 2006 Page A7

The body isn't even warm yet, and already there are at least two senior Liberals -- Frank McKenna and John Manley -- who insiders say are quietly gearing up their leadership campaigns. The fact this is happening is an indication that some Liberals think Paul Martin's campaign is in deep trouble.

Indeed, at least one senior Liberal was stunned when the phone rang just before Christmas and Mr. McKenna was on the other end. The Canadian ambassador to the United States, and more important, the man who is rumoured to want to succeed Mr. Martin, is calling around to well-connected Liberals. In his so-called "holiday call" he did not specifically mention a possible leadership bid, but the insider said that was clearly the subtext.

In fact, Mr. McKenna, a former New Brunswick premier, did not ask directly for support, but was told by the insider that he could count on his help if he decides to seek the leadership. Other Liberals have expressed similar sentiments. Mr. McKenna is, said the insider, also careful to mention that there is no race "yet."

Meanwhile, former deputy prime minister, finance minister, foreign affairs minister and industry minister John Manley is holding a $200-a-ticket fundraiser for Ottawa West-Nepean Liberal candidate Lee Farnworth on Jan. 19. He is the guest speaker -- and laying the groundwork for his future?